Markets for Price Risk

Feb 1, 2026

Baiyang Han, Junyi Hu, Anthony Lee Zhang

Working Paper No. 00200-00

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Financial derivatives, such as futures, options, and swaps, are not contracts on exogenous states of the world, as in Arrow (1964): their payoffs depend on the endogenous market prices of certain goods. How well do markets for price risk approximate the richer state-contingent contracts analyzed by Arrow? We solve analytically for equilibrium trades, asset prices, and welfare in price-linked derivative contract markets, illustrating the role that these derivatives play in risk sharing.


Baiyang Han

Baiyang Han

Junyi Hu

Junyi Hu

Anthony Lee Zhang

Anthony Lee Zhang

University of Chicago Booth School of Business