Upcoming FTG Events
25
Sep
35th Meeting at Carnegie Mellon University (Fall 2026)
10
Dec
3rd Asian FTG Conference
From: December 10, 2026 - To: December 11, 2026
Hong Kong University
The 3rd Annual Finance Theory Group Winter Conference will be held at The University of Hong Kong on...
Featured Papers
This paper presents a dynamic model of firm financing where firms use financial slack to reduce rent extraction by financiers with bargaining power. Financing is lumpy because it is optimal to bargain infrequently. Moreover, firms may finance âearlyâ before exhausting internal funds to bargain when their outside options are better....
We study optimal incentive contracts when workers privately observe whether Agentic AI can automate their jobs. Firms balance bonuses for truthful reports of successful automation with termination threats. Workers may be fired regardless of automation success (\textit{mass termination}), even though dismissing non-automatable workers destroys value. Mass termination becomes more likely...
A property tax can be thought of as a capital structure, which divides a stream of rents into components accruing to the homeowner and to the government. Near-term rents mainly accrue to homeowners, and far-term rents mainly accrue to governments. This characterization implies that the value of property tax revenues...
Finance Theory Insights
Finance Theory Insights
Issue 9
Unintended Equilibrium Consequences: Sometimes Itâs a Whack-a-Mole Game
This issue of FTG Insights show that financial regulation and innovation often reshape incentives and constraints in ways that generate powerful equilibrium feedback effects. Specifically, mechanisms intended to promote stability, inclusion, or safety can improve outcomes along one dimension while simultaneously creating new vulnerabilities elsewhere in the financial system.
The first two columns explore how new financial frictions emerge when technology and regulation reshape the balance sheets of intermediaries. âWhen the Marketplace Becomes the Lenderâ examines the rapid rise of bigtech lending platforms, showing that their close integration with merchantsâ marketplace activity gives them a powerful enforcement advantage over traditional banks. While this expands credit access for underserved borrowers, it also induces adverse selection in bank lending and can perversely lead banks to ration credit for intermediate-risk firms. âWhen Deposits Become a Burdenâ studies a parallel tension within the banking sector itself. Deposits are traditionally viewed as cheap and stable funding, yet when equity capital is scarce and leverage constraints bind, abundant deposits can become a liability rather than an asset. Banks may respond by cutting lending, hoarding safe assets, or reducing deposit rates, helping explain why deposit inflows during the pandemic coincided with weaker credit expansion. Together, these two columns highlight a broader lesson: financial innovations and regulatory constraints often generate unintended equilibrium effects, where mechanisms that improve access to funding in one dimension can tighten credit conditions in another.
The last two columns focus on how regulation and market design can produce unintended consequences in financial markets. âAre Stress Tests Actually Useful?â argues that the value of stress tests depends critically on what regulators plan to do with the information they reveal. If regulators can only impose broad capital requirements, even carefully designed stress scenarios add relatively little value. But when supervisors can intervene in targeted ways (by restricting specific exposures or by directing some banks to reduce risk), the design of stress scenarios becomes central to effective regulation. âSafe Assets but Fragile Marketsâ is inspired by the turmoil in the U.S. Treasury market during March 2020, when Treasuries unexpectedly experienced a âdash for cash.â The column shows how post-crisis regulations that constrained dealer balance sheets transformed the market structure for safe assets, making Treasury markets vulnerable to self-fulfilling runs. Ironically, the same flight-to-safety behavior that traditionally stabilizes markets can, in sufficiently fragile environments, trigger destabilizing fire sales instead.
News
May 9, 2026
2026 Best JMP Prize Winners
We are pleased to announce the recipients of the 2026 FTG Best Theory Job Market Paper Prize.Winner: Hanjoon...
April 14, 2026
2026 New Members
The FTG is pleased to welcome our new members:Alex Maciocco (UC Irvine â Indiana), Alexander Ober (Rice), Elu...
January 8, 2026
Announcing our 2026 FTG Fellows
The FTG is pleased to announce our 2026 Fellows: Lars Peter Hansen, Alessandro Pavan and Rick Green (in...