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Uploaded: Feb 17, 2026

Paolo Fulghieri, Yunzhi Hu, Felipe Varas

Multilateral Contracting in Stage Financing

Venture capital financing typically features complex securities and staging. We develop a dynamic contracting model where an entrepreneur seeks financing from active investors (who provide costly monitoring and screening) and passive investors (who offer cheaper capital). Under multilateral moral hazard,...

Uploaded: Feb 17, 2026

Gustavo Manso, Alejandro Rivera, Hui (Grace) Wang, Han Xia | Working Paper No. 00202-00

Student Loans and Labor Supply Incentives

We develop a dynamic household finance model showing that student loans --  non-dischargeable in the U.S. bankruptcy -- alleviate the well-documented debt overhang in labor supply decisions. Non-dischargeability mutes opportunities for households to strategically reduce labor supply at the expense...

Uploaded: Feb 17, 2026

Alejandro Rivera, Fernando Zapatero, Hongda Zhong | Working Paper No. 00201-00

Optimal Contract with Aspirational Utility

This paper characterizes the optimal contract when the agent is endowed with aspirational utility. Our analysis reveals that effort and aspirations act as complements: the principal utilizes aspirational ``boosters'' to induce local risk-loving behavior, reducing the welfare costs of incentives...

Uploaded: Feb 17, 2026

Agostino Capponi

The nonstationarity-complexity tradeoff in return prediction

We study machine learning models for stock return prediction in non-stationary environments
and identify a fundamental nonstationarity–complexity tradeoff: more complex models reduce
misspecification error but require longer training windows that exacerbate non-stationarity.
We address this tension with a novel tournament-based model selection procedure...

Uploaded: Feb 11, 2026

Zhiguo He

Tech-Driven Intermediation in the Originate-to-Distribute Model

This paper develops a general equilibrium model to examine the role of information technology when intermediaries facilitate the origination and distribution of assets given information asymmetry. Information technology measures the informativeness of asset-quality signals received by intermediaries, who purchase assets...

Uploaded: Feb 1, 2026

Anthony Lee Zhang | Working Paper No. 00200-00

Markets for Price Risk

Financial derivatives, such as futures, options, and swaps, are not contracts on exogenous states of the world, as in Arrow (1964): their payoffs depend on the endogenous market prices of certain goods. How well do markets for price risk approximate...