We propose the Complex Market Hypothesis: substantial return predictability arises from many individually weak signals. We model a computational arms race in which investors choose model scale and learn from limited data. Random matrix theory yields an essentially unique linear...

We develop a model of a dealer-intermediated over-the-counter market designed to study three major changes in the structure of the U.S. corporate bond market: the increase in dealers’ balance sheet costs, the emergence of electronic trading platforms, and the growing...

We study dynamic monopoly pricing with multiple buyers whose privately known valuations are correlated, so one buyer’s purchase reveals information about others. Without seller commitment, these information spillovers alter future pricing incentives and feed back into current demand. They generate...

We model credit competition between a bigtech platform and a bank lending to a merchant under limited commitment and asymmetric information about the merchant’s incentives to default. The platform leverages its control over a marketplace to enforce partial loan repayments,...

I analyze how a security’s cash-flow rights and economic conditions shape its secondary-market liquidity. I develop a competitive bid–ask model with asymmetric information that has a unique equilibrium for a broad class of fundamental distributions and payoff functions, including nonlinear...

Less informative strategic advice can produce more informative prices. We study a finfluencer who reports on an asset’s value, trades on his private information, and receives promotional pay linked to the post-report price. With the quality of private information fixed,...