Using asset prices to measure the long-run impact of monetary policy

Mar 7, 2026

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We develop a methodology to measure market expectations of the long-run impact of monetary policy from asset prices using the operator approach of Hansen

and Scheinkman (2009). We show that the ratio of long term equity returns to long term bond returns, measured over short FOMC windows, can be used to quantify this long-run impact. Empirically, we find that a 25-basis-point expansionary monetary policy shock and a 25-basis-point central bank information shock—identified following Jaroci´nski and Karadi

(2020)—are on average associated with roughly 100-basis-point and 200-basis-point upward revisions in long-run output, respectively.


Hengjie Ai

Hengjie Ai

University of Wisconsin - Madison