Trust in Signals and the Origins of Disagreement

Nov 14, 2022

Ing-Haw Cheng , Alice Hsiaw

Working Paper No. 00047-01

learning disagreement expectations speculation bubbles

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Why do individuals interpret the same information differently? We propose that individuals follow Bayes' Rule when forming posteriors with one exception: when assessing the credibility of signal sources, they "double-dip" the data and use already updated beliefs instead of their priors. Individuals who make this mistake either over- or underreact to new information depending on the order in which they received previous signals. Traders engage in excessive speculation associated with price bubbles and crashes. Our model provides a theory of the origins of disagreement: individuals disagree about both unknown states and credibility despite sharing common priors and information.


Ing-Haw Cheng

Ing-Haw Cheng

University of Toronto, Rotman School of Management

Alice Hsiaw

Alice Hsiaw