Ruizhe Jia
Institution
Stanford University
PhD Year
2024
Phone
357
ruizhe@stanford.edu
FTG Membership
Member
Website
https://rj2536.github.io/
Areas of Expertise
Featured Work
Settlement Manipulation in Prediction Markets
Jul 21, 2026
Prediction markets increasingly list contracts settling on an asset price that holders can move by trading the underlying. We build a model showing that such contracts transfer wealth from prediction-market liquidity traders to manipulators and harm price discovery in the underlying, even as it becomes more liquid. After the launch of Polymarket's five-minute Bitcoin contract, settlement-time spot order flow spikes, causing large price reversals after...
